Our Relative Performance Monitor™ analysis for July 2025 reveals significant shifts in state-level real estate performance based on 24-month home price appreciation rates across all 50 states plus the District of Columbia. The current rankings demonstrate a clear geographic pattern, with northeastern states dominating the top performance tier while southern and western states occupy the bottom rankings. Connecticut leads the nation with a ranking of 1, followed by Rhode Island (3), New Hampshire (5), Ohio (8), and New Jersey (10) rounding out the top five performers. Conversely, Louisiana maintains its position as the worst-performing state with a ranking of 99, followed by Florida (97), Texas (95), Vermont (93), and Hawaii (91) completing the bottom five. This data represents a dramatic shift from historical patterns, where western states like Idaho, Utah, and Arizona previously dominated appreciation rankings.

The northeastern United States has experienced a remarkable transformation in real estate performance over the past 24 months, with Connecticut achieving the top national ranking after climbing from position 45 just six months ago. Rhode Island has demonstrated consistent strength, maintaining a top-5 position for the current period after ranking 3rd a year ago. New Hampshire continues its steady performance trajectory, holding position 5 currently compared to position 8 one year ago and position 3 two years ago. This northeastern resurgence reflects several economic factors including population migration from expensive metropolitan areas, increased remote work flexibility, and relatively affordable housing stock compared to traditional high-cost coastal markets. The region's performance gains align with broader demographic trends showing increased interest in smaller metropolitan areas and suburban communities offering better value propositions for homebuyers.

New Jersey's presence in the top 10 (currently ranked 10) represents a significant improvement from its position of 19 just two years ago, indicating sustained appreciation momentum in Garden State real estate markets. Ohio's strong showing at position 8 demonstrates the continued appeal of Midwest markets, particularly in metropolitan areas like Columbus, Cincinnati, and Cleveland, where technology sector growth and lower cost of living attract both residents and investors. According to recent data from the National Association of Realtors, these top-performing states have benefited from net positive migration patterns, with Connecticut seeing a 0.8% population increase in 2024 and Rhode Island experiencing its first population growth in over a decade. The appreciation rates in these markets have been supported by limited housing inventory, with Connecticut reporting a 15% decrease in available homes for sale compared to pre-pandemic levels, creating competitive bidding environments that drive price increases.

The bottom tier of real estate performance rankings is dominated by traditionally strong appreciation markets that have experienced significant corrections over the past 24 months. Louisiana's consistent last-place ranking (99 for the current period and historically) reflects ongoing economic challenges including hurricane recovery costs, outmigration trends, and energy sector volatility affecting cities like New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Florida's position at 97 represents a dramatic decline from its ranking of 1 just two years ago, indicating a substantial market correction following the pandemic-era price surge that made many Florida markets unaffordable for median-income buyers. Texas, ranked 95 currently compared to 1 two years ago, has experienced similar affordability constraints in major metropolitan areas like Austin, Dallas, and Houston, where rapid price appreciation has outpaced income growth by significant margins.

Vermont's ranking of 93 and Hawaii's position at 91 illustrate the challenges facing remote and resort markets that experienced unprecedented price increases during the pandemic. Vermont's median home price increased over 40% between 2020 and 2022, creating affordability barriers that have subsequently dampened demand and price appreciation. Hawaii's real estate market faces unique constraints including limited land availability, high construction costs, and decreased tourism-related investment following pandemic disruptions to the hospitality sector. According to Hawaii Association of Realtors data, the state's median home price remains above $800,000, pricing out many local buyers and creating market stagnation. Arizona and California, ranked 76 and 78 respectively, continue to grapple with affordability crises in major metropolitan areas, though some secondary markets in these states show signs of stabilization.

Several states demonstrate notable trajectory changes that may indicate emerging trends over the next 6-12 months. Nevada's improvement from position 87 two years ago to position 35 currently suggests potential market recovery in Las Vegas and Reno, driven by continued California outmigration and relatively more affordable housing options. Michigan's climb from position 39 currently compared to position 95 one year ago indicates strengthening fundamentals in Detroit and Grand Rapids markets, supported by automotive industry reinvestment and manufacturing reshoring initiatives. Wisconsin's position at 12 represents consistent performance strength, benefiting from affordable housing stock and economic diversification across Milwaukee, Madison, and Green Bay metropolitan areas. These emerging patterns suggest potential geographic rotation in real estate investment flows toward markets offering better value propositions and economic growth potential.

The stark performance variations reflected in the RPM rankings correlate strongly with regional economic conditions, demographic trends, and housing affordability metrics. According to Federal Reserve Economic Data, states in the top performance tier generally feature median home price-to-income ratios between 3.0-4.5, compared to ratios exceeding 6.0 in many bottom-tier states. Remote work adoption rates, as measured by Bureau of Labor Statistics data, show higher percentages in top-performing northeastern states where employees have gained flexibility to relocate from expensive metropolitan areas while maintaining urban salaries. Energy sector performance also plays a significant role, with oil-dependent states like Louisiana, Alaska (72), and North Dakota (45) showing correlation between commodity prices and real estate performance. Manufacturing renaissance in states like Ohio and Indiana has created employment growth that supports housing demand, while technology sector concentration in traditional high-cost markets has created affordability pressures that limit appreciation potential.

The RPM ranking trends suggest a potential continuation of geographic market rotation over the next 12-18 months, with northeastern and selected midwestern states positioned for sustained performance advantages. Climate migration patterns, increasingly documented by academic research and real estate analytics firms, favor states with moderate climates and lower extreme weather risks, potentially benefiting markets like Connecticut, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire. Federal Reserve monetary policy impacts, including interest rate trajectories and mortgage market conditions, will likely continue influencing regional performance variations, with affordable markets maintaining advantages in rate-sensitive environments. Investment flows are expected to increasingly favor markets demonstrating sustainable appreciation rates supported by employment growth, reasonable price-to-income ratios, and positive demographic trends, suggesting continued strength for top-tier RPM performers while previously hot markets may require extended correction periods to restore affordability and demand balance.