The Relative Performance Monitor™ (RPM™) data reveals significant geographic disparities in U.S. residential real estate performance over the 24-month period ending July 2025. This comprehensive analysis of 81 cities across all 50 states plus the District of Columbia shows pronounced regional clustering of both high and low performers, with northeastern markets dominating the top rankings while southern and western markets struggle with declining home price appreciation rates.

Top Performing Markets Lead National Recovery

Connecticut emerges as the standout state performer with a ranking of 1, anchored by Bridgeport's exceptional #1 city ranking in July 2025. This represents a remarkable turnaround from Bridgeport's 67th position four years ago, demonstrating sustained momentum with consistent top-10 rankings over the past 18 months. New Jersey follows closely with a state ranking of 8, bolstered by Trenton's #2 city performance, which has maintained elite status after climbing from 83rd position four years ago to consistent top-20 rankings. New Hampshire rounds out the top three states at ranking 3, with Manchester achieving #7 city status, showing steady improvement from its 16th position four years ago. These northeastern markets collectively demonstrate the region's economic resilience and housing demand strength.

The data reveals that top-performing cities share common characteristics of sustained improvement trajectories and state-level support. Ohio presents an interesting case study with three cities in the top 50: Cleveland (#5), Cincinnati (#21), and Columbus (#31), contributing to Ohio's strong #10 state ranking. This tri-city performance suggests statewide economic fundamentals supporting residential real estate appreciation. Rhode Island, ranked #5 among states, demonstrates concentrated excellence with Providence achieving #9 city status, maintaining consistent top-15 performance over the past two years after recovering from much weaker positions in prior periods.

Declining Performance Concentrated in Growth Markets

The bottom tier of performers tells a stark story of overheated markets cooling significantly. Louisiana claims the worst state ranking at 99, with New Orleans occupying the lowest city position at #97, representing a catastrophic decline from top-tier performance just two years ago when it ranked #1. This dramatic reversal exemplifies the volatile nature of previously hot southern markets. Texas, ranking 95th among states, shows widespread weakness with multiple cities in the bottom quintile: Austin (#99), San Antonio (#95), Dallas (#93), Tampa (#94), and Houston (#86). This statewide poor performance indicates systematic challenges in the Texas residential market, likely reflecting overbuilding and economic headwinds.

Florida's struggles are equally pronounced with the state ranking 97th, supported by consistently poor city performances including Austin (#99), Jacksonville (#92), Tampa (#94), and Orlando (#90). The Sunshine State's real estate market appears to be experiencing a significant correction after years of exceptional growth, with multiple metropolitan areas showing sustained weakness over the past 24 months. California, despite its economic strength, shows mixed results with a state ranking of 45, but several individual cities performing poorly including Palmdale (#32), Bakersfield (#26), and San Francisco (#72), suggesting regional variations within the state's diverse real estate landscape.

Emerging Patterns and Future Outlook

The RPM™ data identifies several emerging trends that could signal future market shifts. States with improving trajectory patterns include those showing consistent ranking improvements over multiple time periods, while "falling angel" markets demonstrate concerning downward momentum. The combination methodology of city and state rankings provides enhanced predictive capability, with the most reliable future outperformers likely being those cities ranked 1-10 in markets where their corresponding states also rank 1-10. Conversely, cities and states both ranking 90-99 face the highest probability of continued underperformance.

Regional economic fundamentals appear to be driving much of the performance divergence, with traditional manufacturing and service-based economies in the Northeast and Midwest showing renewed strength while previously high-growth Sun Belt markets experience correction phases. The 24-month measurement period captures both the pandemic-related disruptions and subsequent recovery patterns, providing insight into which markets have demonstrated genuine resilience versus those experiencing temporary fluctuations. This RPM™ analysis serves as a valuable tool for real estate professionals, investors, and policymakers seeking to understand current market dynamics and anticipate future trends in America's diverse residential real estate landscape.

Market Implications for Investment Strategy

The RPM™ rankings suggest a fundamental shift in U.S. real estate investment opportunities, with value migration from previously overheated markets toward more stable, traditionally affordable regions. The data indicates that investors and homebuyers should consider northeastern and selected midwestern markets for potential appreciation opportunities, while approaching southern and western markets with increased caution due to their current underperformance trends and potential for continued weakness in the near term.

Statistical Methodology and Predictive Value

The 24-month performance measurement provides sufficient time horizon to filter out short-term volatility while capturing meaningful trend development. The six-month interval tracking allows for identification of momentum shifts and trajectory changes that shorter-term analyses might miss. With 81 cities representing all 50 states plus major population centers, the RPM™ dataset offers comprehensive geographic coverage essential for understanding national real estate dynamics. The dual ranking system incorporating both individual city performance and corresponding state performance creates enhanced analytical framework for predicting future market behavior and identifying emerging opportunities in America's evolving residential real estate sector.