U.S. States & D.C. - Relative Performance Monitor

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The RPM table reveals a remarkably consistent performance hierarchy over the past four years, with Connecticut representing the best current performer with a ranking of 1, having dramatically improved from rank 49 four years ago, while Rhode Island (rank 3) and New Hampshire (rank 5) round out the top performers, indicating strong price appreciation momentum in northeastern markets. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Louisiana has maintained a consistent ranking of 99 across all time periods, establishing it as the worst-performing state in home price appreciation. This exceptional consistency suggests structural challenges in Louisiana's real estate market that have persisted despite broader national economic volatility. 

The highest-ranked states (lowest numerical rankings) demonstrate remarkable market transformations that support sustained price appreciation. Connecticut's dramatic improvement from rank 49 to rank 1 represents one of the most significant turnarounds in the dataset, suggesting fundamental market corrections and renewed demand. Rhode Island's strong performance is supported by robust market fundamentals, with average single-family home prices rose 9.10% year-over-year, reaching $624,700 and 40.3% of homes selling above list price, indicating intense buyer competition and limited inventory. These northeastern states appear to be experiencing a renaissance in real estate appreciation after years of relative underperformance.

The most dramatic shifts in the RPM table occur among northeastern states, which now dominate the top performance rankings. Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and New Jersey all rank in the top 10 currently, representing a complete reversal from their historically mid-tier positions. This regional surge suggests that northeastern markets, previously constrained by high baseline costs and limited inventory, are now experiencing significant price appreciation as demand outpaces supply. The concentration of northeastern states in top rankings indicates a fundamental shift in regional real estate dynamics.

The RPM data reveals distinct regional clustering patterns, with western states showing more volatile performance trajectories. States like California, Nevada, and Colorado show inconsistent performance patterns, suggesting that established high-cost markets may be experiencing affordability constraints that limit sustained price appreciation. Meanwhile, traditional economic powerhouses are experiencing mixed results, with some western markets showing strong historical performance but recent moderation in rankings.

The lowest-performing states in the current RPM rankings include Louisiana (rank 99), Florida (rank 97), Texas (rank 95), Alaska (rank 78), and Mississippi (rank 80), representing a concentration of southern and energy-dependent states facing significant market challenges. Louisiana's perfect bottom ranking across all periods is particularly notable, indicating persistent structural issues that prevent home price appreciation. LA housing prices show a 8.4% YoY rise as of January 2025, but this modest growth appears insufficient relative to other markets. Florida's poor ranking is surprising given its reputation, though 2025 expected to be a great time to buy a house in Florida due to increasing inventory and decreasing prices suggests market corrections may be underway.

The bottom-performing states face common challenges including economic diversification issues, population outmigration, and market saturation. Texas, despite its economic strength, ranks 95 currently, indicating that even robust state economies may face real estate headwinds. Florida's rank of 97 suggests that rapid pandemic-era growth may have created unsustainable price levels, leading to current market corrections. These states may be experiencing the natural cycle of markets that previously overheated during the pandemic boom period.

Several states show emerging patterns that may indicate future market shifts. States in the middle rankings (40-60) like Wyoming, Virginia, and Pennsylvania demonstrate stability that could position them for future outperformance. The data suggests that markets with strong fundamentals but moderate baseline costs may be positioned for continued improvement. Meanwhile, the dramatic northeastern improvement suggests that previously undervalued markets can experience significant ranking improvements when supply-demand dynamics shift favorably.

The RPM analysis reveals that sustained real estate performance depends more on market timing and regional economic cycles than geographic reputation. The northeastern surge challenges conventional wisdom about these markets being too expensive or mature for growth, while traditional high-growth southern markets face performance pressures. The data suggests that investors should focus on markets experiencing fundamental supply-demand imbalances rather than simply pursuing historically strong performers. The southern decline pattern particularly highlights how rapid growth can lead to market corrections, while the northeastern improvement demonstrates that patient capital in undervalued markets can be rewarded with superior performance.