U.S. Cities - Relative Performance Monitor

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The RPM table reveals five exceptional market leaders in home price appreciation: Lancaster, CA (rank 1), San Jose, CA (rank 2), Trenton, NJ (rank 4), Bridgeport, CT (rank 5), and Providence, RI (rank 6). These cities demonstrate remarkable consistency in their top-tier performance, with most showing sustained rankings in the single digits over multiple time periods. Lancaster's ascent to the top position is particularly noteworthy, climbing from rank 98 two years ago to rank 1 currently, representing one of the most dramatic turnarounds in the dataset. San Jose's consistent top-tier performance reflects the underlying strength of the Silicon Valley market, maintaining rankings between 1-9 over the past year despite broader tech sector volatility.

The superior performance of these top-ranked cities reflects distinct market characteristics that support sustained price appreciation. Lancaster, CA shows strong fundamentals with a median price of $479,540, which is an increase of +4.9% since last year, demonstrating solid but sustainable growth momentum. San Jose's market remains intensely competitive despite some cooling, with 70.8% of homes sold above their list price in April 2025, though this represents a 7.2 percentage point decrease compared to last year, suggesting a more balanced market environment. The northeastern cities (Trenton, Bridgeport, Providence) benefit from their proximity to major metropolitan areas while offering relative affordability compared to primary markets, creating strong demand-supply imbalances that drive price appreciation.

The data reveals significant regional clustering patterns, with northeastern cities dominating the top rankings alongside select California markets. The optimal performance combination occurs when both city and state rankings align in the top decile (1-10), which is evident in several top performers. Bridgeport, CT (rank 5) benefits from Connecticut's state ranking of 1, while Providence, RI (rank 6) aligns with Rhode Island's state ranking of 3. This alignment suggests that broader state-level economic and demographic trends are supporting individual city performance, creating a reinforcing cycle of appreciation across multiple markets within these regions.

Several cities demonstrate emerging leadership patterns that may indicate future outperformance. Cleveland, OH (rank 7) has shown remarkable consistency, maintaining single-digit rankings over the past year while benefiting from Ohio's improved state ranking of 10. Manchester, NH (rank 9) represents another emerging market, climbing from rank 43 four years ago to rank 9 currently, supported by New Hampshire's strong state ranking of 5. These patterns suggest that secondary markets in economically improving states may offer superior risk-adjusted returns compared to traditional high-cost coastal markets.

The five worst-performing cities in the current RPM rankings include New Orleans, LA (rank 99), Austin, TX (rank 98), San Antonio, TX (rank 97), Dallas, TX (rank 95), and Houston, TX (rank 88), revealing a concentration of Texas cities and Louisiana in the bottom tier. New Orleans' perfect bottom ranking (99) across all time periods indicates severe structural challenges in the market. A new study by the University of Mississippi ranks its residential real estate market dead last out of 100 U.S. cities studied, confirming the RPM data's accuracy. Austin's dramatic decline from rank 2 four years ago to rank 98 currently represents one of the most significant market corrections in the dataset, reflecting the end of the pandemic-era boom cycle.

The poor performance of these bottom-ranked cities reflects a combination of market oversupply, economic headwinds, and post-pandemic corrections. Austin's market shows signs of stabilization with a median price of $575,928, which is an increase of +1.5% since last year, but this modest growth pales compared to top-performing markets. Home prices are expected to grow 2% to 4% in 2026, with current median values around $545,000, suggesting a slow recovery trajectory. The concentration of Texas cities in the bottom rankings indicates that rapid pandemic-era population growth may have created unsustainable price levels, leading to current market corrections as supply catches up with demand.

The data demonstrates strong correlation between state and city performance rankings, with the most successful combinations occurring when both metrics align in similar ranges. Cities with rankings 1-10 paired with state rankings 1-10 show the strongest sustainability, while cities with rankings 90-99 paired with state rankings 90-99 indicate the highest risk of continued underperformance. This correlation suggests that macro-economic factors at the state level significantly influence individual city performance, making state-level analysis crucial for predicting future market trends.

The RPM analysis reveals that sustained real estate performance depends on the alignment of local market dynamics with broader state-level economic trends. The northeastern surge in both city and state rankings suggests a fundamental shift in regional competitiveness, while the Texas market correction indicates that rapid growth markets may face cyclical challenges. Investors should prioritize markets where both city and state rankings align in the top quintile, while avoiding markets where both metrics rank in the bottom quintile. The data suggests that secondary markets in economically improving states may offer superior risk-adjusted returns compared to traditional high-cost coastal markets, particularly when supported by strong state-level fundamentals.