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U.S. Composite Leading Indicator (1955 - 2025)
The current cycle up-phase in the Composite Leading Indicator cycle model continues into Spring, 2026 - implying continued positive economic conditions in the U.S. over the next year. Mid- to late-2026 may be a different story.
U.S. Unemployment Rate (1948 - 2025)
The combined 334-week and 108-week cycle model turns up in Q1 2025. The last two times this occurred were in 1969 and 1998. Odds seem to favor rising risks of rising unemployment into 2028 at a minimum.
Consumer Price Index - Annual Percent Change (1914 - 2025)
While it would appear that inflation is back under control, cycle studies suggest inflation can trend higher into 2029. Rising inflation combined with rising unemployment (per the Unemployment Rate chart) portends stagflation.
Rent CPI - Annual Percent Change (1948 - 2025)
Rent CPI is coming down from peak levels set in February, 2023. Cycle studies suggest rent CPI (on a national level) will remain range-bound over the next five years. A retest of the 2023 highs (8.8%) is possible.
Chicago Fed Nat'l Financial Conditions Index (1971 - 2025)